Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.086219 0.098344 0.111511 0.126866 0.144274 0.163393 0.185978
2026-01-11 0.067492 0.083211 0.101589 0.124639 0.152757 0.185928 0.228020
2026-01-18 0.054658 0.072403 0.094608 0.124383 0.163222 0.212121 0.278336
2026-01-25 0.042262 0.059969 0.083613 0.117405 0.164376 0.227276 0.317837
2026-02-01 0.032547 0.049342 0.073212 0.109472 0.163026 0.239069 0.355109
2026-02-08 0.025995 0.041985 0.066101 0.104929 0.165673 0.256838 0.403803
2026-02-15 0.020850 0.035788 0.059641 0.100239 0.167340 0.273493 0.453767
2026-02-22 0.017899 0.032543 0.057222 0.101484 0.178512 0.306535 0.534792
2026-03-01 0.014650 0.028173 0.052188 0.097504 0.180398 0.324887 0.594856
2026-03-08 0.012198 0.024755 0.048199 0.094638 0.183722 0.346181 0.663514
2026-03-15 0.010235 0.021875 0.044679 0.092002 0.187000 0.367880 0.736455
2026-03-22 0.009101 0.020423 0.043636 0.093958 0.199371 0.408340 0.851298
2026-03-29 0.007800 0.018410 0.041201 0.092882 0.205976 0.439619 0.955265
2026-04-05 0.006837 0.016945 0.039657 0.093441 0.216187 0.480007 1.085188
2026-04-12 0.006086 0.015811 0.038639 0.095003 0.228942 0.527970 1.239790
2026-04-19 0.005097 0.013889 0.035447 0.090954 0.228302 0.546801 1.333484
2026-04-26 0.004213 0.012031 0.032045 0.085744 0.223988 0.556685 1.408596
2026-05-03 0.003591 0.010726 0.029765 0.082902 0.224986 0.579255 1.518113
2026-05-10 0.003052 0.009529 0.027526 0.079731 0.224578 0.598402 1.622717
2026-05-17 0.002768 0.009009 0.027017 0.081169 0.236684 0.651109 1.822428
2026-05-24 0.002375 0.008062 0.025114 0.078302 0.236466 0.671823 1.941411
2026-05-31 0.002064 0.007299 0.023593 0.076243 0.238175 0.698048 2.080170
2026-06-07 0.001800 0.006625 0.022202 0.074302 0.239882 0.724611 2.224678